Learnings from the Long View

The future has never been more complex and uncertain; yet leaders of companies, governments, and nonprofits must act and adapt with confidence. Peter Schwartz, the acclaimed futurist and business strategist, first popularized scenario planning-a powerful tool for navigating uncertainty-in "The Art of the Long View" in 1991. At that time, his knowledge about foresight and scenarios was drawn mostly from his previous planning and consulting experience at Royal Dutch Shell and the Stanford Research Institute. Global Business Network (GBN)-the innovative company Schwartz had cofounded-was a mere three years old. Since then GBN has undertaken hundreds of scenario projects with a diverse range of clients: Fortune 500 companies in every sector, nonprofits, NGOs, and governmental groups around the world. This little book, completed in late-2010, reflects on that legacy. It shares GBN's mistakes as well as successes and what Schwartz got right in the original "The Art of the Long View," (e.g., the rise of the global teenager, two out of the three scenarios for 2005) and wrong (e.g., the transformative power of the Web). Finally, Schwartz looks forward once more-examining the next great global driving force (hint: more troubling than teenagers) and constructing three scenarios for the year 2025.
About the Author: Peter Schwartz is the cofounder of Global Business Network (GBN), a Monitor Group company. An internationally renowned futurist and business strategist, Peter specializes in scenario planning, working with corporations, governments, and non-profits to create alternative perspectives of the future and develop robust strategies for a changing and uncertain world. Prior to founding GBN, he served as head of scenario planning at Royal Dutch Shell and then as director of the Strategic Environment Center at SRI International. Peter is the author of "The Art of the Long View" (1991), a seminal publication on scenario planning, and "Inevitable Surprises" (2003); co-author of "The Long Boom" (1999), "When Good Companies Do Bad Things" (1999), and "China's Futures" (2001); and served as a script consultant on the films "The Minority Report," "Deep Impact," "Sneakers," and "WarGames." He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, the World Economic Forum Global Agenda Council, and Singapore's Research, Innovation and Enterprise Council and sits on the boards of The Long Now Foundation, The Center for New American Security, and the Center for Strategic Studies. Peter received a BS in aeronautical engineering and astronautics and an honorary doctorate from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute.