Agglomerative Subcenters

Suburbanization has led to the agglomeration of employment and business activity at subcenters removed from the Central Business District (CBD). To address the development of these subcenters in the past half century, this study revises the Standard Urban Model by: 1. Tracing historical origins and variations of the model over the many millennia; 2. Developing a negative-exponential model of agglomerative employment and business subcentering based on the historical findings; and 3. Testing this model using a comparative t-test and a Davidson-MacKinnon model-specification error test to ascertain the existence and location of peak subcenter activity. On average, the distances of the employment and sales peaks occur midway between the CBD and the furthest Major Retail Centers. This volume explores the development of the monocentric urban model. Throughout the following chapters, the history of the concept, the development of the general model, and the creation of a specific model, which includes subcenters, are considered. Next, the specific model is tested against business-census data for ten radial monocentric cities in the United States. Results and implications are reported. Finally, a survey of research that grew out of the initial research and that has extended from the date of the initial project through the present time is presented. Chapters 1 through 5 contain the development of the spine of the research. Chapter 6 contains a brief of major research elements built upon the spine. There has been an increase in agglomerative subcentering over the past four decades in many large metropolitan areas. What present society describes as urban sprawl or suburban flight may simply be a natural process of urban-regional development, consistent with monocentric urban thought and development extending backwards in time for more than two millennia. By objective, the theoretical work of this book emulates major monocentric models developed over the past three millennia to develop an extended mathematical model with agglomerative subcenters. Next, the empirical work tests this extended model against observations of Major Retail Centers (MRCs) for radially monocentric SMSAs. Through a two-step econometric technique which includes a model-specification error test, the results ascertain the existence and locations of peak subcenter activity at an average of approximately half the distance from the Central Business District to the furthest MRC. This position concurs with Plato's ideal model of Magnesia and other works of the past three millennia. Fundamentally, the inspiration and intuition for this book comes from a lifetime of oral and written cultural tradition. Building upon this tradition, this work uses the historical chronicles and analyses found in Chapter 2 to develop the theoretical model in Chapter 3. In retrospect, the empirical Results, in Chapter 4, support the theory of peak subcenter activity developed in Chapter 3.
About the Author: Dr. John Sase teaches Urban Economics at Wayne State University and has served as an Outside Director of Private Mutual Index Funds, Comerica Bank, and as Head of Research at Focus: HOPE. Dr. Sase has taught Business and Economics for four decades and has written a monthly column for The Detroit and Oakland County Legal News. He serves as an Advisor/Consultant for Profit and Non-Profit organizations and as a Forensic and Litigation Economist for the legal community. John is an Aspiring polymath. Dr. Sase's preparatory background includes an undergrad in Humanities, a joint Masters degree in Economics and business and a Doctorate in Economics with applied fields in Urban Economics, Industrial Organization, and Business. URBAN/REGIONAL ECONOMIST John F. Sase grew up in the real estate business in Detroit. He was mentored by his father who was active in the city during the the automotive boom and rapid expansion of Detroit. Dr. Sase extends his analytical prowess as an economic researcher and consultant to finding solutions to various urban and regional economic challenges. His current major projects include serving as Special Economic-Adviser to the Great Lakes Global Freight Gateway, which focuses on the development of inter-modal freight systems from Detroit-Windsor to the Port of Halifax. As a senior development officer at Focus: HOPE in Detroit, Dr. Sase created and headed the research department at a non-profit educational/social action institution that had an annual operating budget of $90 million. The department reported to the four corporate directors and interfaced with agencies of the city, state, and federal government including the Departments of Labor, Commerce, and Defense, and the Office of Management and Budget and various private foundations including Mott, Ford, and Aspen Group. FORENSIC ECONOMIST/ACCOUNTING Dr. Sase practices forensic economics and forensic accounting analysis. His work includes measuring and analyzing economic losses for individuals and small businesses; preparing written economic damage determinations of these losses; consulting with attorneys and their clients; giving discovery depositions initiated by opposing counsel; and providing expert-witness testimony and opinions in courts of law. Dr. Sase can be reached at 248.569.5228 and at drjohn@saseassociates.com.