Aktuelle Indikatoren einer Immobilienblase am Wohnimmobilienmarkt USA
Aktuelle Indikatoren einer Immobilienblase am Wohnimmobilienmarkt USA

Aktuelle Indikatoren einer Immobilienblase am Wohnimmobilienmarkt USA


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About the Book

Studienarbeit aus dem Jahr 2017 im Fachbereich BWL - Sonstiges, Note: 1,9, Bauhaus-Universität Weimar, Sprache: Deutsch, Abstract: Die Thesis befasst sich mit der aktuellen Situation des US-Wohnimmobilienmarktes und geht im Gegensatz zu einem Großteil der gängigen Literatur auf die Analyse einer bevorstehenden Immobilienblase ein. Dabei werden zunächst die wichtigsten makroökonomischen, demographische sowie immobilienspezifischen Einflussfaktoren des Wohnimmobilienmarktes diskutiert, wobei bereits hier die Hälfte der Einzelindikatoren eine erhöhte Wahrscheinlichkeit einer kommenden Immobilienblase andeuten. Darauf basierend folgt eine qualitative Untersuchung. Mittels Scoring-Modell und Diffusionsindex wird zwar keine aktuelle Gefahr eines Platzens einer Preisblase bewiesen, dennoch können Parallelen zum Zeitraum im Vorfeld der Sub Prime Krise nachgewiesen und ein erhöhter Score der Jahre 2015 und 2016 festgestellt werden. Das entscheidende Indiz für die Anbahnung einer Immobilienblase wird im Zuge der quantitativen Analyse des Marktes anhand der kurzfristigen Prognose des Hauspreisindex mit Hilfe der Regressionsmodellierung gefunden. Da die Hauspreise in den kommenden Jahren einen Rückgang erfahren, ergänzt die Prognose die Vermutung der Bildung einer Blase. Schließlich gelingt die Einordnung in die Phase der Kreditexpansion bzw. Euphorie und Manie des zu Beginn der Arbeit erläuterten Minsky-Modells. Weiterhin können neben kaum veränderten Verhaltensweisen der Kreditinstitute zahlreiche weitere Parallelen zur Sub Prime Krise festgestellt werden. Insgesamt bestätigen alle Analysemethoden die aufgestellte These. Somit kann von einer zukünftigen Immobilienblase in den Vereinigten Staaten von Amerika ausgegangen werden.


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Product Details
  • ISBN-13: 9783668416772
  • Publisher: Grin Verlag
  • Binding: Paperback
  • Language: German
  • Returnable: N
  • Sub Title: Eine umfassende Untersuchung mithilfe qualitativer und quantitativer Analysemethoden
  • Width: 148 mm
  • ISBN-10: 366841677X
  • Publisher Date: 11 May 2017
  • Height: 210 mm
  • No of Pages: 56
  • Spine Width: 3 mm
  • Weight: 136 gr


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Aktuelle Indikatoren einer Immobilienblase am Wohnimmobilienmarkt USA
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