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Ambiguität im Versicherungsbereich

Ambiguität im Versicherungsbereich


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About the Book

Studienarbeit aus dem Jahr 2004 im Fachbereich BWL - Bank, Börse, Versicherung, Note: 1,3, Universität zu Köln (Seminar für ABWL, Risikomangement Prof. Heinrich Schradin), Veranstaltung: Hauptseminar 2004, Sprache: Deutsch, Abstract: Die Arbeit widmet sich dem Aufsatz "Ambiguity and Uncertainity in Probabilistic Inference" von Hillel J. Einhorn und Robin M. Hogarth aus dem Jahr 1985. Dieser beschäftigt sich mit dem Thema Ambiguität im Versicherungsbereich, wobei unter Ambiguität im Allgemeinen Unsicherheit über eine Unsicherheit verstanden wird. Genauere Definitionen variieren stark, so wird auch von der Unsicherheit zweiter Ordnung und von Wahrscheinlichkeiten für Wahrscheinlichkeiten gesprochen. Kennzeichnend ist die Unsicherheit über die Verlässlichkeit einer Wahrscheinlichkeitsverteilung: sie ist genauso wie ihre Input- und Outputparameter nicht bekannt oder es wird eine Verteilungsfunktion aufgestellt, ihre Richtigkeit allerdings im Nachhinein angezweifelt. Einhorn und Hogarth unterscheiden zwischen Unkenntnis, Ambiguität und Risiko, je nachdem, wie sehr sich alternative Wahrscheinlichkeitsverteilungen ausschließen lassen. In der realen Welt kommt Ambiguität in nahezu allen Bereichen vor, etwa in der Medizin, bei der Einführung neuer Produkte im Zusammenhang mit Garantieversprechen, bei Gefahren durch Nuklearenergie, bei der Ungewissheit über die Mobilfunkbelastung oder bei der Einschätzung der Wahrscheinlichkeiten von Terroranschlägen. In der vorliegenden Arbeit wird der zentralen Frage nachgegangen, ob die Existenz von Ambiguität einen Einfluss auf Prozesse im Versicherungsbereich hat. Gibt es einen solchen, wird durchleuchtet wie stark dieser ist und bei welchen Prozessen er vorkommt, sowie ob Ambiguität zum Marktversagen im Versicherungssektor beiträgt. Es wird untersucht inwiefern der Aufsatz von Einhorn und Hogarth auf diese Fragen Antworten liefern kann. Zuerst wird der Fokus auf frühere Untersuchungen zu diesem Thema gelegt, wobei die dem Konzept von


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Product Details
  • ISBN-13: 9783640203406
  • Publisher: Grin Publishing
  • Binding: Paperback
  • Language: German
  • Returnable: N
  • Spine Width: 3 mm
  • Weight: 132 gr
  • ISBN-10: 3640203402
  • Publisher Date: 15 Nov 2008
  • Height: 210 mm
  • No of Pages: 52
  • Series Title: German
  • Sub Title: Untersuchung des Aufsatzes "Ambiguity and Uncertainty in Probabilistic Inference von Hillel J. Einhorn und Robin M. Hogarth
  • Width: 148 mm


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