Avaliação do Centro Europeu de Previsão do Tempo a Médio Prazo
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Avaliação do Centro Europeu de Previsão do Tempo a Médio Prazo

Avaliação do Centro Europeu de Previsão do Tempo a Médio Prazo


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About the Book

Foi efectuada uma análise para avaliar o desempenho das previsões sub-sazonais a sazonais (S2S) do Centro Europeu de Previsão do Tempo a Médio Prazo (ECMWF) sobre o sul da Nigéria, com o objetivo de calcular a capacidade de medir a qualidade das previsões durante o período de 1995 a 2015 e durante os anos de El Niño e La Niña. A análise dos resultados revelou enviesamentos negativos em prazos de uma a quatro semanas. Os desvios e o RMSE aumentaram com o tempo de execução, enquanto os valores de ACC foram melhores no tempo de execução de uma semana e piores no tempo de execução de quatro semanas. Nos prazos de 2 a 4 semanas, o desvio seco é particularmente forte entre o final de junho e julho. Este facto sugere uma dificuldade na previsão com precipitação dispersa durante a Monção da África Ocidental (WAM), quando a Zona de Convergência Intertropical (ITCZ), também designada ITD, se encontra a norte da região. A previsão durante os anos de El Nino também teve melhor desempenho do que nos anos de La Nina, e a previsão durante os anos de La Nina é pior durante o período da Pequena Estação Seca (LDS) em julho e agosto na área de estudo. Este facto pode estar associado à teleconexão entre os eventos ENSO e a precipitação na área de estudo.


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Product Details
  • ISBN-13: 9786208044466
  • Publisher: KS Omniscriptum Publishing
  • Binding: Paperback
  • Language: Portuguese
  • Returnable: N
  • Weight: 145 gr
  • ISBN-10: 6208044464
  • Publisher Date: 04 Sep 2024
  • Height: 229 mm
  • No of Pages: 56
  • Spine Width: 3 mm
  • Width: 152 mm


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