Our prediction for global economies and global asset markets heading into the turbulent 2016-2017 period is not meant to be alarmist, or a "Dr Doom" style forecast, but a realistic assessment of the facts around debt, demographics and disinflation, and then an extrapolation from those factors to individual economies and markets. Rather than simply being doomsayers, we intend to pen another book in 2017-2018, to take advantage of the expected undervaluation of global assets and economies that will occur as a result of the next recessionary phase. As such, we like to be contrarians, in both boom and bear cycles. Our strong sense is that the bull cycle that started in 2009, now nearly 7 years old, is slowly maturing. The time to make major asset allocation changes, whether you are a small investor or a major pension fund investor, is now, in advance of the turmoil. We are clear that we expect shares, property and other growth assets to fall by 30-50% in the coming 2 years. Commodities will fall by more than that, and currencies will fall by a fraction less. Either way, some major opportunities are there for the picking. We strongly advise our readers to think outside of the square, challenge consensus, be contrarian, and think for themselves, logically and sensibly. If they do, that is the path not just to profit but importantly to capital preservation in the turbulent years that lie ahead of us.
About the Author: ACM's Director of Strategy, Craig Ferguson, graduated from Melbourne University with Bachelors Degrees in Law & Economics in '93. He has 21 years experience working in the world's leading investment banks and in financial markets. Craig was a Government Bond & FX trader for JPMorgan ('94-99) in Sydney, then took JPMorgan's London-based Global Technical Analysis group ('99-'03) to consistently one of the top 3 forecasters (Euromoney & Institutional Investor Surveys) of FX, Bond, Commodity & Equity markets around the world between '00-'03. Upon returning to Australia, he took up a position as the Senior Currency Strategist at ANZ ('03-'06). While at ANZ he was voted (Peter Lee survey) by the top 100 Australian corporate clients the best FX forecaster in Australia '04-'06, and ran an $80m hedge fund allocation program. He then left ANZ to found Antipodean Capital Management, which specialises in providing asset allocation, research and financial markets advisory services to the world's largest sovereign wealth funds, pension funds, family offices, banks, corporates and private corporations. Craig lives in the country outside Melbourne, where he brings up his 4 children, and generally runs around (like most people) with little time to spare between work, household and family obligations.