Econometric Modeling and Forecasting

This book serves as a reference guide to econometrics modelling and forecasting. The book is divided into two parts i.e. Modelling and Forecasting, to make it easy for the reader to understand the topic.The first part of the book i.e. Modelling, throws light on the various econometric models. The models are very well explained to make it easier for anyone reading the book to grasp the concept. Various mathematical and statistical tools used with reference to econometrics models are also discussed. Chapter 4 discusses hypothesis testing which is of paramount importance in any research and will also act as a base for the next part of the book i.e. Forecasting. Various basic tests, which are used for hypothesis testing are also included in the chapter.The second part of the book i.e. Forecasting includes several different concepts such as forecasting principles, forecasting classification, forecasting accuracy evaluation and its industrial applications in depth. The concepts are enriched with relevant case studies. The case studies have been specially selected for the better understanding of the concepts. The book is written with a vision to guide the reader on structuring a forecasting problem. The book provides the necessary information to the reader so that the reader can design various forecasting methods and evaluate them efficiently. It answers important questions such as: - How to implement various forecasting methods in different situations and with different variables?- When to accept or reject the forecasts? The book takes the readers through a variety of forecasting methods, with a strong discussion on their strengths and weaknesses, and an analysis on how to use them efficiently. The book has been written with the objective of helping the readers/researchers select the most appropriate method for a given forecasting problem and ultimately, evaluate the chosen forecasting model. This is useful especially when selection of the most appropriate method for a particular situation is the most important criterion. This book also suggests what research on forecasting methods will have the greatest, and the least, payoff. Research on forecasting has grown in importance to a great extent in recent times due to the fact that application of forecasting techniques has been growing rapidly in the areas of the social, behavioral and management sciences. So much is known about forecasting methods, but little is applied. Why? Because what is known in one field is unknown in another or because it frequently contradicts our common sense or challenges our beliefs and our behavior. Hence, the book will also tell the researcher how to effectively use, evaluate and interpret different forecasting methods under different situations. Underlying the evaluation procedure is the need to test methods against reasonable alternatives. Overall, this book should serve as a standard source of reference for researchers in the fields of business, government, academia, and consulting.
About the Author: Jagat Prirayani is a PhD economics candidate in the University of Glasgow, the United Kingdom, and hold Masters in economics from the University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, the USA. He is the member the US Fulbright scholars and studied at St. John University at Manhattan and the University of California Santa Cruz and worked as a bank supervisor and market researcher in the Central Bank of Indonesia, Indonesian Financial Services Authority, and Astra Insurance. Now is currently working as a consultant to companies mainly in Europe and the United States, and actively focusing on the dynamic modeling research of macroprudential and monetary policy coordination, which fully funded by the University of Glasgow.