Entscheidung Unter Unsicherheit by Richard Gottwald
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Entscheidung Unter Unsicherheit

Entscheidung Unter Unsicherheit


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About the Book

Das menschliche Verhalten bei Entscheidungen nimmt im Rahmen betriebswirtschaftlicher Fragestellungen einen besonderen Rang ein, weil es sich nicht mit Gegenständen der unternehme- rischen Tätigkeit, sondern mit der Tätigkeit selbst befaßt. In diesem Zusammenhang kann gefragt werden, ob es überhaupt zulässig ist, Empfehlungen für das Verhalten zu geben. Die betriebswirtschaftliche Entscheidungstheorie kennt daher so- wohl deskriptive als auch präskriptive Ansätze. Im Rahmen der präskriptiven Ausrichtung existiert eine Vielzahl von Model- len, mit denen versucht wird, dem Entscheidenden Hinweise zu geben, wie er sich verhalten sollte. Zumindest teilweise sind diese Ansätze nicht aus betriebswirtschaftliehen Fragestel- lungen entstanden, so daß zu prüfen ist, ob sie auf solche Entscheidungssituationen übertragbar sind. Zweifel daran ergeben sich u.a. aus der Behandlung des Infor- mationsgrads über die Eintrittswahrscheinlichkeiten der Um- weltzustände sowie aus den Anforderungen bezüglich des Präzi- sionsgrads der vom Entscheidenden zu spezifizierenden Präfe- renzvorstellungen in Entscheidungen bei unvollständiger In- formation. wenn die Eintrittswahrscheinlichkeit eine Maßeinheit für die Unsicherheit künftiger Zustände ist, so muß geprüft werden, ob die bisherige Differenzierung des Informationsgrads aus- reicht. Es zeigt sich, daß ein Ausschluß der Informations- grade zwischen völliger Unkenntnis und voller Quantifizier- VI barkeit ebensowenig befriedigt wie eine Umwandlung von schwächerer Meßbarkeit in voll quantifizierte Werte. Es sind daher zusätzliche Meßbarkeitsstufen der Eintrittswahrschein- lichkeiten einzuführen. Die Bewertungsunsicherheit manifestiert sich in unscharfen bzw. inkonsistenten Präferenzäußerungen des Aktors. Die Ab- lehnung solcher Präferenzäußerungen ist für realitätsnahe Entscheidungsansätze nicht angemessen, so daß versucht werden muß, die Konsequenzen aus der Bewertungsunsicherheit zu er- fassen.


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Product Details
  • ISBN-13: 9783409132121
  • Publisher: Gabler Verlag
  • Publisher Imprint: Gabler Verlag
  • Edition: 1990 ed.
  • Language: German
  • Returnable: Y
  • Spine Width: 31 mm
  • Weight: 1001 gr
  • ISBN-10: 3409132120
  • Publisher Date: 01 Jan 1990
  • Binding: Paperback
  • Height: 244 mm
  • No of Pages: 569
  • Series Title: Betriebswirtschaftliche Forschung Zur Unternehmensführung
  • Sub Title: Informationsdefizite Und Unklare Präferenzen
  • Width: 170 mm


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