Long-standing economic trends that were disrupted by the global financial crisis can no longer be counted on as a reliable guide for understanding and charting the future. To provide a more accurate analysis of the likely course of worldwide financial developments, this volume concentrates on a set of critical economic factors and offers a description of the possible evolution of their reach and scope. The Global Economy in 2030 is the result of a collaborative effort of CEPS, the Centre International de Recherches et d'Etudes Monétaires, the Institute of Studies for the Integration of Systems, and Société Européenne d'Economie.
Contents
1. Executive Summary
Part I. Global Drivers of Growth
2. Population and Human Capital
3. Capital and Capital Markets
4. Globalization
5. Technology and Innovation
6. Natural Resources: Energy and Metals
Part II. Economic Growth and Prosperity in 2030
7. The State of the Global Economy in 2030
8. The Impact of Growth on Affluence and Poverty
9. The Impact of Growth on Climate Change
Part III. The EU's Transition Towards 2030
10. The Outcome of the Nemesis Model: Introduction
11. Europe as Whole
12. A More Detailed Approach
13. The Consequence of Higher Productivity Gains
14. Conclusions
Part IV. Policy Challenges and Game Changers for the EU
15. A Smaller EU in the World Economy
16. Facing an Ageing World
17. The EU Needs to Focus Its Trade Policy
18. Centrifugal Forces in Europe
19. Climate Change Challenge
20. Demographic Cooling Down in the Euro-Mediterranean
21. Is the World Economy Becoming Less Democratic?
22. A Global Game Changer from China
23. The Economic Emergence of Sub-Saharan Africa
24. Hydraulic Fracking
About the Author: Daniel Gros is the director of the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS). Cinzia Alcidi is LUISS Fellow at CEPS in Brussels.
