Konjunkturzyklus by Stefan Leschonski B. Sc - Bookswagon
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Konjunkturzyklus

Konjunkturzyklus


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About the Book

Masterarbeit aus dem Jahr 2011 im Fachbereich VWL - Konjunktur und Wachstum, Note: 1,3, Helmut-Schmidt-Universität - Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg (Institut für Politische Ökonomik und Empirische Wirtschaftsforschung), Veranstaltung: Master-Thesis, Sprache: Deutsch, Abstract: Die Konjunktur ist ein Phänomen hoher Komplexität, Dynamik und Variabilität. Demzufolge, und mit dieser Fragestellung beschäftigt sich die vorliegende Arbeit vorrangig, sind konjunkturelle Wendepunkte und damit ebenso Konjunkturzyklen nur schwerlich zu bestimmen. Nun gibt es eine größere Anzahl an Verfahren, um die Wendepunkte eines Konjunkturzyklus' und damit einen anstehenden Auf- oder Abschwung der Wirtschaft mehr oder minder zuverlässig zu lokalisieren. Solche Methoden werden in der vorliegenden Arbeit beleuchtet und hinsichtlich ihrer Zuverlässigkeit und Aussagekraft überprüft. Es wird ergo folgende Forschungsfrage im Mittelpunkt der Betrachtung stehen: "Lassen sich mit Hilfe der Dreimal-Regel, der Presse-Regel und der Boldin-Modifikation konjunkturelle Wendepunkte zuverlässig identifizieren?" Ziele werden demzufolge sein, die Methoden hinsichtlich ihrer Zuverlässigkeit und Aussagekraft zu überprüfen, konjunkturelle Wendepunkte und Konjunkturzyklen mit Hilfe der zu untersuchenden Verfahren in der deutschen Wirtschaft zu identifizieren und eine eigene Chronik deutscher Konjunkturzyklen aufzustellen. Um diese Fragestellungen hinreichend beantworten zu können, wird wie folgt vorgegangen: Zunächst werden in Kapitel 2 die theoretischen Grundlagen behandelt und sowohl der Bereich der Konjunktur als auch der Zyklen und derer Phasen behandelt. In Kapitel 3 werden Referenzzeitreihen, also Möglichkeiten zur Messung der Konjunktur, untersucht sowie Filter-Verfahren, die der Bereinigung dieser Zeitreihen dienen. In Kapitel 4 steht der Bereich der Konjunkturindikatoren im Focus: Nach einem Überblick werden beispielhaft die Indikatoren des ifo-Instituts erläutert, da das ifo Geschäftsklima für


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Product Details
  • ISBN-13: 9783640995295
  • Publisher: Grin Verlag
  • Publisher Imprint: Grin Verlag
  • Height: 210 mm
  • No of Pages: 112
  • Series Title: German
  • Sub Title: Identifikation von Wendepunkten: Eine theoretische und empirische Analyse
  • Width: 148 mm
  • ISBN-10: 3640995295
  • Publisher Date: 01 Sep 2011
  • Binding: Paperback
  • Language: German
  • Returnable: N
  • Spine Width: 7 mm
  • Weight: 209 gr


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