Prediction and Perception of Natural Hazards

This collection of articles provides a unique overview of the state of the science in the prediction of and response to natural disaster events. The uniqueness of this volume is that it comprises more than just the physical science perspective. For each natural hazard included in this text, social scientists have provided research summaries of how public perceptions are related to the actions that are likely to be undertaken when people are confronted with information about the existence of a natural hazard threat. In this book the reader can find a truly international characterization of both hazard perception and prediction. The American and European contributors provide state-of-the-science overviews of empirically-based research knowledge that expands beyond any national boundaries. This approach has resulted in broader understanding of what is currently known about predicting natural hazard events and predicting how those events, or warnings of them, will be responded to by different types of societies.

Table of Contents:
Session 1 The Effect of the Uncertainties in Natural Hazard Prediction on the User Communities.- A Non-Structural Policy for the Mitigation of Flood Effects: The Arno Project.- The Impact of Structural Damage due to Hurricanes and the Prospects for Disaster Reduction.- The Social Dimensions of Warning and the Transition from Folk Wisdom to Laymanship.- Natural Hazard Predictions and Responses in Very Large Cities.- The Effect of the Uncertainties in Natural Hazard Prediction on the User Communities.- Uncertainties in Natural Hazards Prediction and its Effect on User Communities Perception: Soviet Union Case Study.- Session 2 Uncertainties in the Development of Predictions of Large Scale Atmospheric Phenomena: Droughts, Tornadoes and Hurricanes.- Uncertainties in the Development of Predictions of Large Scale Atmospheric Phenomena, Droughts, Tornadoes and Hurricanes.- Empirical Studies of Public Response to Tornado and Hurricane Warnings in the United States.- The Role of Technical Hazard and Forecast Information in Preparedness for and Response to the Hurricane Hazard in the United States.- Session 3 Uncertainties in the Development of Predictions of Floods and Landslides.- Some Remarks on Scientific Activity of Flood Prediction in Italy.- Landslides as Polycausal Phenomena.- Uncertainty in Evaluating Landslide Hazard and Risk.- The River Danube Flood of 27 March 1988.- A Summary of the State of the Art in Flash Flood Warning Systems in the United States.- Spatial Prediction of Landslides.- Session 4 Uncertainties in the Development of Predictions of Earthquakes and Volcanoes.- Earthquake Prediction from the Viewpoint of Earthquake Engineering.- Communicating Public Earthquake Risk Information.- Uncertainties in the Estimate of Strong Ground Motion in the Surroundings ofa Large Earthquake.- Risk Area Residents’ Changing Perceptions of Volcano Hazard at Mt. St. Helens.- Uncertainties in the Development of Predictions of Earthquakes.- Session 5 The Use of Scientific Information by the Media.- The Different Worlds of Science and Mass Communication: Implications for Information Flow from the Former to the Latter.- Effective Communication between the Scientific Community and the Media.- Ideas for a Global Model of Communication and IDNDR Potential.- Quantity of Reporting about Hazards: The Case of Naturally Occurring Radon.- Earthquake Prediction and Information to the Public — A Mexican Perspective.