Unabhängigkeit, geldpolitischer Konservativismus und Inflationsvorhersagen
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Unabhängigkeit, geldpolitischer Konservativismus und Inflationsvorhersagen

Unabhängigkeit, geldpolitischer Konservativismus und Inflationsvorhersagen


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About the Book

Diplomarbeit aus dem Jahr 2007 im Fachbereich VWL - Geldtheorie, Geldpolitik, Note: 1,0, Universität Mannheim, Sprache: Deutsch, Abstract: Spätestens seit Inflation Targeting als Framework zur Erreichung stabiler, niedriger Inflation unter Notenbanken immer populärer wurde, richtete sich die Aufmerksamkeit der Geldpolitik verstärkt auf die Kommunikation mit der Öffentlichkeit und damit auch auf die offiziellen Inflationsprognosen, auf deren Basis die Zentralbanken dem interessierten Publikum die Wirkung ihrer geldpolitischen Maßnahmen zu erklären und es über ihre Einschätzung der wahrscheinlichen ökonomischen Entwicklung zu informieren begannen. Die Qualität dieser Prognosen wird von den Notenbanken heute teilweise selbst regelmäßig untersucht, wobei oft nicht nur die aufgetretenen Abweichungen zur tatsächlichen Preisniveausteigerung quantitativ dargestellt werden, sondern zugleich versucht wird, die Prognosefehler ökonomisch zu erklären (vgl. hierzu beispielhaft die Analysen der norwegischen Notenbank in Norges Bank (2007:54ff.)). Eine politik-ökonomische Betrachtung der Anreize, denen die Zentralbanken bei der Erstellung der Prognosen ausgesetzt sind, wurde unseres Wissens hingegen bislang noch nicht versucht. Diesem Gegenstand widmet sich die vorliegendeUntersuchung. Auf Basis theoretischer Überlegungen wird in einer empirischen Analyse von insgesamt 2.029 einzelnen Notenbankprognosen aus 10 Ländern gezeigt, dass die Unabhängigkeit der Zentralbanken von der Regierung sowie der geldpolitische Konservativismus der Notenbanker auf dem Wege von Anreizmechanismen Auswirkungen auf die Höhe der offiziellen Inflationsprognosen haben. [...]


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Product Details
  • ISBN-13: 9783668511088
  • Publisher: Grin Verlag
  • Publisher Imprint: Grin Verlag
  • Height: 210 mm
  • No of Pages: 124
  • Spine Width: 7 mm
  • Width: 148 mm
  • ISBN-10: 366851108X
  • Publisher Date: 29 Aug 2017
  • Binding: Paperback
  • Language: German
  • Returnable: N
  • Weight: 222 gr


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Unabhängigkeit, geldpolitischer Konservativismus und Inflationsvorhersagen
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