Using Telemetry Science and PHM to Predict Spacecraft Telemetry Behavior

The author provides a technical background necessary to use the proprietary, dynamic data-driven and model-based predictive algorithms used in a PHM program. The results from using PHM is predicting equipment behavior with 100% certainty, something that has been wrongly believed impossible since the use of probability analysis began by the U.S. military and government in the early 1960's. PHM programs allow for predicting normal spacecraft behavior and then illustrate the presence of premature aging (a.k.a. non repeatable transient event) and then discriminate and identify premature aging from other normal occurring transient behavior. Premature aging has been present for all spacecraft equipment failures but was usually diagnosed as other non-repetitive transient events in telemetry behavior at the spacecraft factory during manufacturing and test, after factory testing is completed, on the launch pad, during launch if equipment telemetry is available and while in orbit and on an interplanetary trajectory. Using the author's proprietary predictive algorithms, whose use began on the Air Force'd GPS program when the author was the Boeing GPS Space and Ground Segment Manager on contract to the Air Force to win funding for the GPS program, to predict GPS satellite atomic clock failures during system wide multi-service testing, The presence of premature aging is used to predict with certainty when the equipment will fail by converting the equipment telemetry from performance data to reliability data. PHM technology converts the performance data, known as equipment or product telemetry into a measurement of remaining usable life when the presence of premature aging is confirmed by a prognostic analysis. The use of the prognostic analysis is only valid for electrical and mechanical spacecraft related equipment and products that have passed qualification, certification and/or acceptance testing because the equipment will have have adequate design margins. PHM cannot be used to predict failures and determine design margins with 100% certainty. Using Telemetry Science and PHM allows engineers to predict equipment failures weeks and months with 100% certainty prior to their failure allowing many advantages including providing 100% reliable equipment, for increasing mission success at a lower mission cost. The authors describes the relationship between RF communications principles with the spacecraft telemetry behavior on spacecraft in Earth orbit, lunar orbit or interplanetary trajectory that allows the presence of premature aging to be identified with 100% certainty among other transient spacecraft equipment behavior in telemetry. This book can be used in conjunction with the author's other books that describe PHM technology and its application on spacecraft.
About the Author: The author is an award winning spacecraft designer, winning awards from Boeing and the U.S. the Air Force for his technical contributions and leadership that led to the funding of the GPS program by the DoD as the Boeing GPS Space & Ground Segment Manager. The author has over 30 years of experience in the design, manufacture and test of military, NASA and commercial satellites, ground stations, missiles and launch vehicles as an RF and digital design engineer and systems engineer, Engineering Manager and Director at companies such as Boeing, Lockheed Martin, British Aerospace, United Technologies, LORAL and L3 Communications. The authored pioneered the use of predictive algorithms on the GPS satellites to illustrate and identify the presence of premature Aging in satellite subsystem and payload equipment analog telemetry and determine remaining usable life as the Boeing/Air Force's GPS Space and Ground Segment Manager on GPS satellites at the factory, launch pad and on on-orbit and on the General Dynamics Atlas E/F launch vehicles used to launch GPS Block I satellites into a 63 degree inclination, 12 hour circular orbit beginning in 1979 and improved the design of Boeing's 28 Block II satellites and 12 more Block IIA satellites from the prognostic analysis results the author obtained from the 12 Boeing Block I GPS satellites. The author was also the Air Force Titan 34D, Boeing IUS solid rocket motor and Scramjet Test Manager at the United Technologies, CSD rocket testing facility located in the Coyote Hills, South San Jose California. As the Program Manager of the U.C. Berkeley/NASA EUVE low earth orbiting space science program, Space Sciences Laboratory, the author was requested to complete a prognostic analysis on the on-orbit NASA EUVE low earth orbiting satellite in 1994 and 1995. The results were published in conjunction with Lockheed Martin reliability engineers from the Advanced Development Center located in Sunnyvale CA for use on the U.S. Navy Trident D5 ICBM program. The intent of the author is to illustrate that telemetry has increased importance from nice-to-have engineering data to information critical to achieving mission success greater than 99%, which has been about 85% since launching payloads to space began in 1958.