Buy Gold Value and Gold Prices From 1971 - 2021 by Gary Christenson
Home > Parenting, Family & Health > Self Help & Personal Development > Advice on careers & achieving success > Gold Value and Gold Prices From 1971 - 2021
Gold Value and Gold Prices From 1971 - 2021

Gold Value and Gold Prices From 1971 - 2021


     0     
5
4
3
2
1



Out of Stock


Notify me when this book is in stock
About the Book

What is an appropriate exchange rate for gold in 2015 when priced in US dollars? What will be the appropriate exchange rate when priced in Euros in 2017? We don't know. Worse, a number of highly intelligent and recognized experts can't even agree whether gold will be priced higher or lower in three years. Given that major disagreement among experts, who and what should an investor believe regarding the exchange of steadily devaluing dollars, euros, pounds and yen for the purchase of gold? My solution was to create an empirical model based on several macro-economic variables, not including the price of gold. The goal of the model was to accurately replicate the smoothed price of gold as calculated with a twice smoothed moving average of monthly closing prices since 1971. The model performed well - specifically it had a 0.98 statistical correlation with the actual smoothed market price of gold in US dollars between 1971 and 2013. The resulting graph of calculated gold prices rose from about $30 in 1971 to about $500 in 1980 - 84, down to under $300 in 1999 - 2001, and then up to about $1,500 in 2013. Currently the model shows that gold, selling for about $1,300, is undervalued and therefore likely to move higher in coming years. But how much higher? The book discusses reasonable projections based on the estimated change of the macro-economic inputs to the model and then calculates reasonable or "fair" values for gold through the year 2021. Of course the price of gold will rise above and fall below the calculated "fair" value during the next several years, but estimating the "fair" value will help people evaluate whether or not the market price of gold is over or under valued at any particular time. Examples: The model indicated that the market price of gold at its peak in August 2011 was 30% higher than the "fair" price. Similarly, the market price of gold in December 2013 was 26% below its "fair" price. This "fair" value information would have been particularly valuable to those who were considering purchases of gold in August 2011 or selling their gold in December 2013. The model accurately replicated, on average, the smoothed price of gold for over 40 years. Furthermore the model was robust. Since 1971 the world has experienced stock market booms and busts, bond market bull and bear markets, "shock and awe," occasional peace, the inflationary 1970s, the stock market booms of the 1990s, the devastation of 9-11 and subsequent wars, a housing crash, and a global financial crash in 2008. The model created accurate "fair" value estimates for the price of gold during all those market extremes. The book is divided into three parts. Part one explores the need for an empirical model, examines monthly gold prices since 1971, smoothed annual gold prices, the macro-economic variables used in the model, the actual formula that replicates smoothed gold prices, and future gold prices as projected by the model. It also discusses gold cycles, various ratios, and shows how those cycles and ratios support the price projections indicated by the model. Part two addresses the larger economic environment including counter-party risk, The Fed, interest rates, QE, inflation, and central bank gold sales. Part three encourages you to act in accordance with your individual financial circumstances and risk tolerance. It offers suggestions on how to purchase gold, where to store gold, when to buy and sell, and what a bubble in the gold market could indicate for prices. The model has a 40+ year record of calculating a reasonable and "fair" price for gold. There is no guarantee that the model will continue to be accurate in the future, but the model is certainly more useful and objective than the opinions of many supposed experts and biased analysts who materially disagree on future expectations for gold prices.
About the Author: Gary Christenson is the owner and writer for the popular and contrarian investment site deviantinvestor.com and the author of "Gold Value and Gold Prices From 1971 - 2021." He is a retired accountant and business manager with over 30 years of experience studying markets, investing, and trading. He writes about gold, silver, the economy and central banking. His articles are published on deviantinvestor.com as well as other popular sites such as 321gold, Peakprosperity, Goldseek, Dollarcollapse, Silver-For-The-People, and many others. About 40 years ago he did graduate work in physics (all but dissertation) so he strongly believes in analysis, facts, and rational decisions based on hard data.


Best Sellers



Product Details
  • ISBN-13: 9781502710406
  • Publisher: Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
  • Publisher Imprint: Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
  • Height: 229 mm
  • No of Pages: 168
  • Series Title: English
  • Sub Title: An Empirical Model
  • Width: 152 mm
  • ISBN-10: 1502710404
  • Publisher Date: 29 Oct 2014
  • Binding: Paperback
  • Language: English
  • Returnable: N
  • Spine Width: 10 mm
  • Weight: 304 gr


Similar Products

Add Photo
Add Photo

Customer Reviews

REVIEWS      0     
Click Here To Be The First to Review this Product
Gold Value and Gold Prices From 1971 - 2021
Createspace Independent Publishing Platform -
Gold Value and Gold Prices From 1971 - 2021
Writing guidlines
We want to publish your review, so please:
  • keep your review on the product. Review's that defame author's character will be rejected.
  • Keep your review focused on the product.
  • Avoid writing about customer service. contact us instead if you have issue requiring immediate attention.
  • Refrain from mentioning competitors or the specific price you paid for the product.
  • Do not include any personally identifiable information, such as full names.

Gold Value and Gold Prices From 1971 - 2021

Required fields are marked with *

Review Title*
Review
    Add Photo Add up to 6 photos
    Would you recommend this product to a friend?
    Tag this Book Read more
    Does your review contain spoilers?
    What type of reader best describes you?
    I agree to the terms & conditions
    You may receive emails regarding this submission. Any emails will include the ability to opt-out of future communications.

    CUSTOMER RATINGS AND REVIEWS AND QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS TERMS OF USE

    These Terms of Use govern your conduct associated with the Customer Ratings and Reviews and/or Questions and Answers service offered by Bookswagon (the "CRR Service").


    By submitting any content to Bookswagon, you guarantee that:
    • You are the sole author and owner of the intellectual property rights in the content;
    • All "moral rights" that you may have in such content have been voluntarily waived by you;
    • All content that you post is accurate;
    • You are at least 13 years old;
    • Use of the content you supply does not violate these Terms of Use and will not cause injury to any person or entity.
    You further agree that you may not submit any content:
    • That is known by you to be false, inaccurate or misleading;
    • That infringes any third party's copyright, patent, trademark, trade secret or other proprietary rights or rights of publicity or privacy;
    • That violates any law, statute, ordinance or regulation (including, but not limited to, those governing, consumer protection, unfair competition, anti-discrimination or false advertising);
    • That is, or may reasonably be considered to be, defamatory, libelous, hateful, racially or religiously biased or offensive, unlawfully threatening or unlawfully harassing to any individual, partnership or corporation;
    • For which you were compensated or granted any consideration by any unapproved third party;
    • That includes any information that references other websites, addresses, email addresses, contact information or phone numbers;
    • That contains any computer viruses, worms or other potentially damaging computer programs or files.
    You agree to indemnify and hold Bookswagon (and its officers, directors, agents, subsidiaries, joint ventures, employees and third-party service providers, including but not limited to Bazaarvoice, Inc.), harmless from all claims, demands, and damages (actual and consequential) of every kind and nature, known and unknown including reasonable attorneys' fees, arising out of a breach of your representations and warranties set forth above, or your violation of any law or the rights of a third party.


    For any content that you submit, you grant Bookswagon a perpetual, irrevocable, royalty-free, transferable right and license to use, copy, modify, delete in its entirety, adapt, publish, translate, create derivative works from and/or sell, transfer, and/or distribute such content and/or incorporate such content into any form, medium or technology throughout the world without compensation to you. Additionally,  Bookswagon may transfer or share any personal information that you submit with its third-party service providers, including but not limited to Bazaarvoice, Inc. in accordance with  Privacy Policy


    All content that you submit may be used at Bookswagon's sole discretion. Bookswagon reserves the right to change, condense, withhold publication, remove or delete any content on Bookswagon's website that Bookswagon deems, in its sole discretion, to violate the content guidelines or any other provision of these Terms of Use.  Bookswagon does not guarantee that you will have any recourse through Bookswagon to edit or delete any content you have submitted. Ratings and written comments are generally posted within two to four business days. However, Bookswagon reserves the right to remove or to refuse to post any submission to the extent authorized by law. You acknowledge that you, not Bookswagon, are responsible for the contents of your submission. None of the content that you submit shall be subject to any obligation of confidence on the part of Bookswagon, its agents, subsidiaries, affiliates, partners or third party service providers (including but not limited to Bazaarvoice, Inc.)and their respective directors, officers and employees.

    Accept

    New Arrivals



    Inspired by your browsing history


    Your review has been submitted!

    You've already reviewed this product!